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• #49924 S_x96x_S addikt Busterftw #49921

  Új Válasz 2025-10-17 12:37:35 #49924

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  S_x96x_S

  addikt

  válasz Busterftw #49921 üzenetére

  > Patrick Moorhead: I think we could see AMD at probably 30% share"
  Szerintem egy az egyben ignoralhatjuk, hogy egy AMD-nel dolgozo mit mond az AMD-rol, foleg ami a market sharet illeti.

  Ex-AMD-s - és ~14 éve otthagyta az AMD-t
  Az OpenAI + AMD üzletről:
  https://x.com/PatrickMoorhead/status/1975183019532251432

  """

  ...

  How this differs from NVIDIA’s investment in OpenAI:
  •NVIDIA’s approach: $100B financial equity into OpenAI, 1GW binding and “over 10GW planned”, non-binding.
  •AMD’s approach: AMD gives OpenAI upside in AMD if OpenAI deploys AMD GPUs at scale and AMD executes. It’s compute-for-upside, not cash-for-shares. The incentive runs from AMD to OpenAI, tightly contractually binding GPU adoption to AMD’s stock performance. 6GW binding.
  
  Strategic implications:
  •For AMD: A visible, multi-gigawatt demand signal. AMD says the partnership can deliver “tens of billions” in revenue over time and be accretive. MI450 performance/roadmap, packaging/HBM supply, firmware/driver maturity, and delivery timelines all have to hit.
  •For OpenAI: Supplier diversification and potential cost/availability leverage. The equity kicker aligns economics if AMD’s share price benefits from the ramp OpenAI helps drive. But OpenAI only wins the equity if it meaningfully runs on AMD at scale.
  •For NVIDIA: Has a viable datacenter GPU competitor.
  •For the ecosystem: More GPU compute is coming. If AMD’s MI450 platform performs and ROCm/software keeps advancing, we’ll see broader model portability and pricing pressure across the stack. This does not erase NVIDIA’s installed base or near-term cadence, but it does broaden the path to capacity.
  
  Timelines: First 1 GW arrives in 2026. Between now and then, OpenAI’s near-term growth still leans on existing supply chains. The 6-GW figure is multi-year and contingent on real deployments plus AMD hitting stock-price thresholds.
  
  What I’m watching next:
  1. Concrete site/partner details (which CSP/neocloud).
  2. Software: specific ROCm, compilers, kernels, and end-to-end tooling for frontier models.
  3. Company says GPU wafer, HBM and advanced packaging capacity is secured— the gating factor for every GPU ramp.
  4- The vesting cadence: when purchase, technical, and price hurdles clear — especially the $600 end-state.
  
  Bottom line: This is a breakthrough achievement for AMD. It will be a strategic supplier for the leading AI company and this will attract even more tier 1 customers. This is a compute commitment with performance-based equity attached. If AMD ships and OpenAI deploys at scale, both share the upside. If either side misses, the dilution doesn’t happen. It’s a smart way to bind supply, economics, and execution in one structure.

  """"

  Ami érdekes, hogy az
  - OpenAI + AMD - üzlet : 6GW - jogilag kötelező ( binding )
  - OpenAI + nVidia - üzlet-nél meg csak : 1GW kötelező érvényű.
  
  Vagyis a Mi450 és a Rubin Vera tényleges benchmarkok alapján fogják az nvidia további szállításait véglegesíteni.

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